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El Niño and UAE rain: what NCM's outlook means for mosquitoes

NCM expects near or above-normal UAE rain to March 2027 but says El Niño does not mean heavy rain. How Dubai homes can prepare for standing water.

In this guide (5 sections)
  1. What did NCM actually say?
  2. What about the next two weeks?
  3. Why does it matter for mosquitoes?
  4. What should Dubai residents and landlords do now?
  5. What to check before you act

The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) says UAE rainfall may be near or above normal from November 2026 to March 2027, as El Niño is very likely to continue. It also says that is not a forecast of heavy rain. For Dubai households, the useful response is modest: get into the habit of checking for standing water now, rather than after the first big storm.

What did NCM actually say?

NCM's 96% figure has been widely repeated, so it is worth being precise about it. According to Gulf News and Emirates 24|7, both on 30 October:

  • There is about a 96% probability that El Niño conditions persist from November 2026 to March 2027, with effects possibly lasting into April.
  • UAE temperatures and rainfall may be near or above normal for that period.
  • The 96% refers to El Niño continuing. It is not the chance of rain or of heavy rain.
  • Rainfall still depends on moisture, wind, the position of low-pressure systems and conditions that build clouds.

Earlier in October, Khaleej Times reported that NCM had dismissed viral social media claims of severe El Niño flooding and urged residents to follow its forecasts. NCM meteorologist Ahmed Habib told the paper that the main effect would be added moisture, with rain depending on local conditions.

What about the next two weeks?

Separately, Ibrahim Al Jarwan of the Emirates Astronomical Society expects unsettled weather in waves until mid-November, with stronger systems possible in the second week, according to Gulf News. He also said forecast reliability falls below 50% at 9 to 15 days, so treat this as a possibility and not a schedule. He is not speaking for NCM.

NCM's own short-range forecast, reported by Gulf News on 3 November, has possible rain in eastern and northern areas this week. It does not name Dubai.

Claim Who says it How firm is it?
El Niño likely to persist to March 2027 NCM 96% probability, on persistence only
Rainfall near or above normal, Nov–March NCM Seasonal outlook; a broad trend only
Waves of unsettled weather to mid-November Ibrahim Al Jarwan Long-range view; he says reliability drops sharply
Rain in eastern and northern areas this week NCM Short-range forecast; Dubai not named

Why does it matter for mosquitoes?

Standing water after rain is where mosquitoes breed. After the storm of 27 March 2026, The National reported a rise in mosquitoes in several communities, and said the Municipality had warned residents about the link with stagnant water. The same report said cockroaches and rodents may also become more common with extra standing water, though it gave no specific reports of those.

Nobody has published a mosquito forecast for this winter, and we are not predicting one. NCM's outlook makes no mention of pests. But the household steps cost almost nothing and work whether the season turns out wet or average.

What should Dubai residents and landlords do now?

The Ministry of Climate Change and Environment and Dubai Municipality gave similar advice earlier this year:

  • Empty containers that hold water, and remove any you don't use.
  • Clean areas where rain collects, and keep drains working.
  • Fix leaks and maintain gardens.
  • Cover water tanks.
  • Fit window screens if mosquitoes get in.

Landlords and building managers should check rainwater drains and basement non-return valves now, as the Municipality asked in its rain plan last month.

Our guide to mosquitoes after rain in Dubai has the full standing-water checklist. For mosquitoes at home, Dubai Municipality's free pest control service runs through 800900, and larger stagnant-water sites can be reported to the ministry on 8003050. See our mosquito page for more. Anyone with a fever should see a doctor.

Dubai Pest is an independent information site and is not affiliated with NCM or Dubai Municipality.

What to check before you act

  • Check NCM's latest forecast, since the seasonal outlook won't tell you about a given week.
  • Walk your balcony or garden for anything that collects water.
  • Ask your building manager whether drains and valves have been checked.
  • Be wary of forwarded flood warnings that don't come from NCM.

General information only, not professional, medical or legal advice. Rules, services and prices change; confirm with Dubai Municipality or a licensed company before you act. Spotted something out of date? Tell us.

Sources

  1. UAE weather: November to bring heavier rain? Here's what is expected (Gulf News, 30 Oct 2026)checked 3 November 2026
  2. Dubai: El Niño is growing stronger, as we head into November (Emirates 24|7, 30 Oct 2026)checked 3 November 2026
  3. El Nino likely to persist until March 2027; UAE to see above-average rains (Khaleej Times, 18 Oct 2026)checked 3 November 2026
  4. UAE weather update: rain expected for three days as temperatures reach 38°C (Gulf News, updated 3 Nov 2026)checked 3 November 2026
  5. UAE faces increase in pests after spells of heavy rain (The National, 14 Apr 2026)checked 3 November 2026
  6. UAE urges residents to eliminate stagnant water to prevent mosquito breeding after rains (Gulf News, 29 Mar 2026)checked 3 November 2026

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